But is an Quebec NDP breakthrough on the horizon? Don't count on it.
The federal NDP's worst kept secret in Quebec is no longer a secret. Former Quebec Liberal Environment Minster Thomas Mulcair will run for the party in Outremont, where a by-election is expected to be called shortly. A Mulcair NDP victory is still a long shot at this point,but certainly not out of the question. An unprecedented vote split is what the New Democrats will be praying for.
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The problem in your analysis is you do not know the distribution of those double digits that are showing up in the polls in Quebec. If they are concentrated around these ridings with superstar NDP players, or around urban areas mostly, then the NDP can be looking at huge gains. A common fallacy (since we don't have PR) is that the average polls show how much they'll get on a riding by riding basis. However, if most of that double digit polling is concentrated in one or two ridings, suddenly the numbers look a whole lot more threatening.
I wouldn't say it's a long shot at all. The NDP has serious support in this riding and the Bloc are running a virtual unknown. Mulcair is well-known and highly repsected in Québec. I think he'll bring this one home.
No question about it, Mulcair is definitely a star candidate for the NDP. With the Conservatives running the brother of the Mayor of Montreal (who has strong connections in the riding) they will also see their numbers improve solidly in this traditional LPC stronghold. However, with a dynamic field the traditional LPC-BQ faceoff may be abondoned by voters looking for other options.
It really depends on the quality of candidates the LPC and BQ can find before any predictions can be made, both are scrambling for talent.
To say the least, this will be an interesting race... it could even turn into a four way battle if the LPC and BQ cannot field strong candidates!
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