The federal NDP's star candidate in Quebec, former Environment Minister Thomas Mulcair, is likely going to throw his hat into the ring when Stephen Harper calls a by-election in the in the near future. Many pundits had expected that a federal election would cancel the need for a by-election in Jean Lapierre's old seat, but with the election delayed, chances are the by-election will proceed. The NDP has an excellent chance of picking up the seat, but only with Mulcair as their candidate.
Results from 2006:
If Mulcair can convince just 20% of Liberal voters and 15% of BQ voters to switch to the NDP, he can take the riding.
An NDP victory in Quebec would really shake things up and further complicate matters for the BQ, who are desperately trying to fend off a challenge from the Tories. Mulcair and Layton are currently touring Quebec, building the party's profile and capitalizing on recent gains in Quebec public opinion polls.