Friday, June 15, 2007

Central Nova: Have the Dynamics Changed?

Blogging a Dead Horse has an excellent analysis of the current dynamics of the race in Central Nova (Peter Mackay's seat). The federal budget has changed the dynamic in Nova Scotia, making the Tories very vulnerable. But the Liberals can't capitalize on this vulnerability because they are giving a free ride to Green leader Elizabeth May instead. The Green-Liberal alliance was such a mistake in hindsight and failed to materialize outside of Central Nova in places like St. Catharines, much to the chagrin of some Liberal bloggers.


Scott Tribe said...

If May wins that riding, it isn't a mistake anymore, now is it?

We'll have to see how things play out, but as I've said at my site and at Blogging A Dead Horse., I believe upset cConservative voters are unlikely to move to the NDP, but to the moderate middle.. and in this case, that's the Greens. I also dont see the Liberal voting revolt you NDP folks are claiming is going to happen.. I believe in the end, they'll go with the the facto endorsed ally of the Liberals.. and that is Ms May.

Joshua Kubinec said...

Personally, I think this shift in dynamics really doesn't mean anything given that we're still pretty far away from an election at this point. There is likely a fairly large amount of time left between now and the next election, so MacKay has lots of time to do some fake constituency work in order to smooth out the wrinkles this disaster of his has caused.

Also, there seems to be a lot of people who are failing to take into account that MacKay is very popular in his riding despite all of the recent humdrum. He's part of a political pedigree that's going to be very tough to ouster, especially given that the monied residents of Nova Scotia will likely still be on his side.

There is one thing I think I ought to point out all that being said...

As it stands right now, the NDP is doing very well in the polls at the provincial level and I think it's worth mentioning that the NDP brand name has a statistically significant lead on the Tories and the Liberals. We all know that this doesn't translate into votes, but it should give people the idea that there are a lot of Nova Scotians who appear to be at least considering a vote for the NDP.

So, the way I see it, Lizzie is going to be fighting an uphill battle.