Monday, June 25, 2007

Is Outremont a Liberal Stronghold?

Hardly. Although it's true that the Liberals have dominated in Outremont historically, the party did lose the seat to the Conservatives in 1988 and Liberal support in Outremont has declined in every election since 1997. The NDP, on the other hand, has never come close to winning in Outremont, but the riding is the NDP's number one target in Quebec and the party has significantly increased its share of the vote in Outremont in recent years. Expect the NDP to throw everything at Outremont. If the Liberals think they can cruise to victory based on history alone, they are in for a rude awakening, espcially when they are facing the toughest NDP candidate in recent history in Thomas Mulcair.


janfromthebruce said...

who use to be the Minister of Environment with the Quebec provincial liberal party. Great grab!

McGuire said...

While I would much rather see a Tory win, as I am one, my money is on Mulcair to win. A weak Liberal Party, the Bloc sliding toward irrelevancy, an increase in the NDP base support in Quebec & enough Tories interested in giving the Liberals a first rate humiliation, which it would be for them to lose to the NDP, means Mulcair will pull it off.