If current polling trends continue, the Ontario NDP may finish behind the Greens in 25% of riding contests in the October 10 provincial election.
Based on past electoral performance, the quality of local candidates, and organizational effort on the ground, the Green Party is poised to collect more votes than the NDP in several ridings across the province. Although the Greens have outperformed the NDP in a few by-elections in recent years, it is extremely rare for the Greens to collect more votes than the NDP in any riding contest in a general election. However, the Green Party’s support for a unified secular public school system, the public’s focus of environmental issues, and the Greens’ push for MMP have given the party new credibility and, in the process, have shaken loose supporters from the other parties, particularly the NDP. In ridings where the NDP has little traditional strength, the Greens are certainly within striking distance.
As a result, look for potential 4th place NDP finishes in the following ridings:
416 ridings
Don Valley West
Etobicoke Centre
Scarborough Agincourt
Scarborough Rouge River
Willowdale
905 ridings
Brampton West
Dufferin-Caledon
Halton
Markham-Unionville
Mississauga East-Cooksville
Mississauga-Erindale
Mississauga-Streetsville
Newmarket-Aurora
Oak Ridges-Markham
Oakville
Richmond Hill
Thornhill
Vaughan
Wellington-Halton Hills
Eastern Ontario ridings
Carleton-Mississipi Mills
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Leeds-Grenville
Ottawa-Orleans
Ottawa South
Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry
Southwestern Ontario ridings
Chatham-Kent-Essex
Perth-Wellington
Northern Ontario ridings
Parry Sound Muskoka
Other ridings where the Green Party has an outside chance of outperforming the NDP:
Ajax-Pickering
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Don Valley East
Guelph
Mississauga-Brampton South
Mississauga South
Nepean-Carleton
Niagara Falls
Ottawa West-Nepean
Pickering-Scarborough East
York-Simcoe
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
Do you think they'll pick up any seats?
If not, and you're right about their strong performance, that's a HUGE argument for electoral reform right there.
There is virtually zero chance that the Greens will win a seat, or even come close for that matter.
Interesting observation, but all those numbers prove is that the Green's are really more of a party for Tories and environmentally sensetive righties (especially when you read the Greens policies) because almost all of those ridings that you sited are extremely right-wing ridings. That's not to much a reflection on the Greens gaining strength as the fact that those areas are populated by people who don't tend to vote to the left.
Although, I'll admit, I attended an all-Candidates meeting in a very affluent, right-wing neighbourhood in Toronto this week and there was only one moment when the audience nearly brought the house down, and that was when they all applauded the Greens loudly for their position on the Faith Based Schools Issue.
Post a Comment