If current polling trends continue, the Ontario NDP may finish behind the Greens in 25% of riding contests in the October 10 provincial election.
Based on past electoral performance, the quality of local candidates, and organizational effort on the ground, the Green Party is poised to collect more votes than the NDP in several ridings across the province. Although the Greens have outperformed the NDP in a few by-elections in recent years, it is extremely rare for the Greens to collect more votes than the NDP in any riding contest in a general election. However, the Green Party’s support for a unified secular public school system, the public’s focus of environmental issues, and the Greens’ push for MMP have given the party new credibility and, in the process, have shaken loose supporters from the other parties, particularly the NDP. In ridings where the NDP has little traditional strength, the Greens are certainly within striking distance.
As a result, look for potential 4th place NDP finishes in the following ridings:
Don Valley West
Scarborough Rouge River
Eastern Ontario ridings
Southwestern Ontario ridings
Northern Ontario ridings
Parry Sound Muskoka
Other ridings where the Green Party has an outside chance of outperforming the NDP:
Don Valley East