Manitoba Election Projection

Via Werner Antweiler' Election Forecaster,
Projection of 2007 Manitoba Provincial Election Results

The projection is based on the 2003 results:

Popular Vote & Seats 2003
NDP 49.5% 35 seats
PC 36.2% 20 seats
LIB 13.2% 2 seats
OTR 1.1% 0 seats


Recent public opinion polls indicate a much closer race this time, but the concentration of the NDP vote makes it far more efficient. This could cause a scenario wherein the NDP loses the popular vote on May 22, but still wins a comfortable majority government. The following projection is based on the logic that the NDP will maintain 85% of its vote from 2003 while the other 15% will migrate to the Tories. This projection more closely resembles current opinion polls in the province. This projection demonstrates how first past the post elections can benefit the NDP - and why the Manitoba New Democrats have shown little interest in electoral reform.

Popular Vote & Seats 2007 predicted
NDP 42.0% 31 seats
PC 43.6% 24 seats
LIB 13.2% 2 seats
OTR 1.1% 0 seats

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