Gary Doer and the NDP are widely expected to win the Manitoba provincial election on Tuesday, but the opposition is already charging that Doer won't complete his third term as Premier if the NDP is in fact victorious.
That got me thinking about a potential job reshuffling within the ranks of the NDP leadership. If Jack Layton can't improve on the federal NDP's 2006 numbers in the next federal election, widely expected to be called this year or next, he may face pressure to resign, having run as leader in three campaigns.
Doer would be an appealing choice for many New Democrats.
He's a proven winner (New Democrats do like to win from time to time).
He could potentially rebuild the party's western base (which has been eroded under Layton).
He's a centrist (which would make him more "credible" with mainstream voters).
He has lots of experience (as a three term Manitoba premier).
He is well liked (in fact, one of the most well liked Premiers in Canada).
After three terms as Manitoba Premier, he will likely be looking for new challenges (running to become the first NDP Prime Minister in Canada would certainly be a challenge).
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There is no question that Gary Doer is a great premier and a terrific guy, but Layton isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
In a lot of ways, Layton is just hitting his stride.
He's got more experience as a party leader than either the Prime Minister or Dion and Canadians routinely rank him above the other two on likeability and honesty.
As we saw just this week, he's also the one leader in the commons for whom "getting things done" isn't just a slogan.
Also, the NDP's support in the west is showing surprising strength. While the seat count in Saskatchewan remains a frustration, the party gained votes in every western province in the last election. Indeed, check out the latest Ipsos which had the federal NDP leading in BC. When is the last time that happened?
Both Layton and Doer are going to be on the job for some time to come.
Actually, that's exactly what I wrote yesterday: Doer would be a very capable successor to Layton once the day of new leadership comes.
Well, not exactly... unlike you, I'm not a fan of Doer. An NDP Premier who can win back to back majorities and not bother to even pass anti-scab legislation or initiate electoral reform is hardly inspiring.
However, I recognize that for many people that makes him perfect leadership material for the federal NDP.
I prefer Layton myself, although I think I could warm up to Doer provided that he made a pretty big shift to the left in his next term as premier.
I'd rather waffle to the left as they say...
If that's the case, then Doer has quite a bit of waffling to do.
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