Green Party Prospects in Ontario By-Elections

Ever since Green Party leader Elizabeth May finished a respectable 2nd place in the London North Centre federal by-election in November, pundits have been musing about a Green Party breakthrough. I'm more sceptical about the prospects of a Green breakthrough. After all, the party didn't even field a candidate in the Repentigny by-election in November 2006. Even so, by-elections probably offer the best chance for a good Green Party results for several reasons. 1. By-elections rarely have a large impact on government, therefore the public is free to vote their conscience or vote for new blood without having to worry about political consequences.
2. By-elections tend to work against the party in power. Since the Greens aren't in power, they stand a better chance of winning more votes.

Three Ontario by-elections have been called for February 8, 2007. Given that the best results ever for the Greens occurred just a few months back in an Ontario riding, I thought it would be interesting to look into the races in York South-Weston, Burlington, and Markham to determine Green Party prospects. Admittedly, the federal Green Party is different from its Ontario section, but their "values" and policies are virtually identical.

I have listed below the 2003 provincial election results along with the 2006 federal election results followed by my predictions for each by-elections. You'll notice that I don't predict any major breakthroughs whatsoever for the Greens. In fact, I don't believe any Green Party candidate will crack double digits on February 8. Although Greens did finish third, ahead of the NDP, in a couple of by-elections in 2001 (Parry-Sound-Muskoka, and Vaughan-King-Aurora), the party has failed to repeat a third place finish in every provincial by-election since. I also believe that the NDP's opposition to the 25% MPP pay raise will help rally protest votes that would normally have gone to the Greens. Lastly, Green Party leader Frank DeJong is no Elizabeth May. It will be interesting to see the level of support the Greens will win without May at the helm, or as a candidate.

York South-Weston

2006 federal result

Liberal 57.0%
NDP 21.3%
Con 17.5%
Green 4.2%

2003 provincial result

Liberal 61.6%
NDP 19.3%
Con 15.2%
Green 2.4%

2007 by-election prediction

Liberal 49-53%
NDP 24-28%
Con 19-23%
Green 4-8%


Burlington

2006 federal result

Con 43.1%
Liberal 39.1%
NDP 12.4%
Green 5.3%

2003 provincial result

Con 46.2%
Liberal 42.2%
NDP 8.2%
Green 2.3%

2007 by-election prediction

Con 45-49%
Liberal 34-38%
NDP 10-14%
Green 5-9%


Markham

2006 federal result

Liberal 61.6%
Con 27.0%
NDP 8.0%
Green 3.4%

2003 provincial result

Liberal 51.7%
Con 40.3%
NDP 5.1%
Green 1.6%

2007 by-election prediction

Liberal 43-47%
Con 40-44
NDP 5-9%
Green 2-6%