Thursday, October 11, 2007

The NDP and the MMP Referendum

Some interesting number crunching reveals the following:

In the ten ridings where the NDP won on October 10, a majority of voters rejected MMP.

Provincial average-- FPTP: 63.2% MMP: 36.8%
NDP ridings-- FPTP: 55.9% MMP: 44.1%

In the NDP ridings where the NDP candidate took more than 50% of the votes cast, support for MMP was even more unpopular. In Welland, MMP won the support of only 39.9% of voters. In Kenora-Rainy River, MMP won the support of just 30.1% of voters, and in Timmins-James Bay, support for MMP was a dismal 22%.

In four of ten NDP ridings (all of the Toronto NDP ridings) MMP won majority support. Support for MMP was highest in Trinity-Spadina (59%) - still under the 60% super majority. In the other six NDP ridings (all of the NDP ridings outside of Toronto) support for MMP was actually below the provinical average, largely due to the intense opposition to MMP in Northern Ontario.

A few weeks back I complained about the party's reluctance to campaign on MMP here and here. I think these results demonstrate how the party dropped the ball on MMP. Communicating with the base would not have changed to outcome of the referedum, but it could have certainly firmed up support for MMP.

1 comment:

Mushroom said...

Let me made a comment here.

What you see with Howard Hampton's leadership is a dichotomy between the rural CCF affiliations strong in Fort Frances and Timmins against the New (Urban) Politics Initiative of Jack Layton. For NPI to work, there needs to be a change in the electoral system as the goal is to be a standard bearer of progressive change, instead of letting the adaptable Liberals seize the centre left agenda. Hampton's CCF approach relies on the polarization of Ontario politics in which it becomes the sole spokesperson of progressive change. In the past three elections, results have shown that while Hampton's message is increasingly popular, the returns have become disappointing to say the least.