Cherniak Congratulates Rob Nicholson?!?

"Progressive" blogger Jason Cherniak congratulates Niagara Falls Tory MP Rob Nicholson on his appointment as Minister of Justice.

A few thoughts on the cabinet shuffle:1) Congrats to Rob Nicholson. I like him
and I hope that he is a more reasonable Minister of Justice than Vic Toews. The
most important job will be to get police representatives off boards that select
judges, allow those boards to distinguish between "qualified" and "highly
qualified" applications and fill the many, many judicial positions that the
Harper Government has left unfilled.

Don't hug him too tight Cherniak. Nicholson may have come from the PC side of the Reform-PC merger, but he is unapologetically pro-death penalty, anti-abortion, anti-equal marriage, and he has the voting record to prove it. And Cherniak wonders why people question his progressive credentials?

On Conservative-NDP Co-operation

Earlier today, Cherniak wrote:

The federal NDP would be hilarious if they weren't so destructive. You'll have to get to the end of the article, but just as they are starting to gain traction attacking the Tories they are back to attacking the Liberals. I think they just don't get it - people don't trust them to form a government. The federal NDP will never be more than a third party that makes it possible for Conservatives to win elections. Even the Conservatives admit it!

It may come as a surprise to some Liberals, but some New Democrats will admit it too.

Let me give you a good example of how Tory-NDP co-operation helped sink the Liberals in Niagara Falls.

In the 2003 provincial election, when it looked like the local Conservative campaign was going down with the ship, Bart Maves’ people sent the NDP campaign a list of voters who were identified as not supporting the Conservatives. The idea was that the NDP, with very few resources or volunteers, could more easily identify their supporters that way and hopefully, swing a few Liberal votes away from Kim Craitor’s campaign. The last minute Tory strategy failed and the Liberals won the riding.

I wasn’t involved in the 2003 campaign. However, less than a year later, while co-managing the Federal NDP’s campaign in Niagara Falls, we were able to rely on those 2003 Tory lists to build and, more importantly, broaden our base of support. In fact, we relied exclusively on those lists in that campaign and the NDP vote shot up to over 20% on election day and we quadrupled our vote total from the previous election. The Liberals lost a seat they had held since 1993 by fewer than 2000 votes to the Tories.

In 2006, I once again managed the NDP campaign in Niagara Falls. This time we had our own lists left over from 2004 and had more resources than ever before. Our advertising focused almost exclusively on attacking the Liberals despite the fact that it was now a Tory riding. We took this approach because we understood that the Liberals were in decline and our best opportunity for building our vote total came from disgruntled Liberals, not committed Conservatives. We attacked the Tories when it was convenient, but the Liberal record was our major focus.

Our efforts paid off. In fact, on election day we took over 12,000 votes, a record for the federal NDP in Niagara Falls. In debates, in the newspaper coverage, and in our election ads, we took direct aim at the Liberals, sometimes with the help of Rob Nicholson’s campaign. When Paul Martin was visiting the riding towards the end of the campaign to make an announcement about the development of a “heroes fund”, Tory MP Rob Nicholson personally contacted our campaign reminding us that this was originally an NDP proposal turned down by the Liberals. He left his personal cell phone number, said he was happy to help and encouraged us to contact him in case we couldn’t get research help from our own central campaign. Let's just say the Tory war room is faster. With Nicholson’s assistance, we were able to develop a targeted leaflet which exposed the Liberal flip flop and embarrassed the Liberal campaign. Nicholson also personally visited the NDP office and we were in contact with his office over advertising issues, successfully lobbying the Tories to pull a newspaper ad which the NDP candidate thought might hurt our campaign.

To call this collusion would be silly, since our campaigns were very much independent. We did, however, have a common enemy in the Liberals. We both understood, correctly in my view, that our campaigns both benefited from a collapse in the Liberal vote. In cooperating or accepting assistance from the Tories, we never sacrificed our beliefs or principles. Instead, we managed to run a great campaign, which promoted the NDP’s message and exposed the Liberals as a carbon copy of the Tories. This, more than anything, is why New Democrats attack Liberals in my view. The NDP was created because the two old parties were not addressing the needs of the working class. While Liberals like to portray themselves as centrists, they campaign on the left and govern on the right. As such, they can’t expect to be given a free ride by the NDP, even if it means electing a Tory.

Who is Rob Nicholson?

Niagara Falls Review reporter Corey Larocque has written a in-depth article on Federal Justice Minister and Niagara Falls MP Rob Nicholson. It's mostly a fluff piece and is suprisingly lacking any discussion of Nicholson's politics, but is a passable backgrounder for political junkies in other parts of the country who want to know more about this recently promoted cabinet minister.

Niagara Falls Liberals Ponder a Run Against Rob Nicholson

The Niagara Falls Review reported yesterday that three local Liberals are interested in taking on Tory MP and Minister of Justice Rob Nicholson in the next federal election. City alderman Carolynn Ioannoni, former city alderman Joyce Morocco, and Riding Association President James Curran are all soul searching.

Ioannoni would likely be the best choice. She's been on city council since 1999, and was the top vote getter among women candidates in both the 2003 and 2006 municipal elections. She has her critics, but the voters keep on sending her back to city hall with increased vote totals.

Morocco was defeated in the November 2006 municipal elections after serving her first term on council. For her to jump to federal politics after losing municipally would be a awkward step for both her and the party.

Curran is about as dedicated a Liberal as they come, but he doesn't command the kind of profile or name recognition associated with Ioannoni or Morocco.

This contest should be interesting, especially given the Liberal party's push to run more women in winnable ridings. It is not inconceivable that Stephane Dion would quash the local nomination process and simply appoint a strong woman candidate. Such a move would likely irk Curran, a Dion supporter, but then again, democracy has never been the Liberal Party's strong point.

Bowie's "Big Announcement" a Bust

Liberal blogger James Bowie's "big announcement" turned out to be a major bust. The political blogosphere prematurely thought Bowie was announcing Garth Turner's imminent defection to the Liberals. However, his real "big announcement" was that Liberal blogger James Curran is seeking the Liberal nomination in Niagara Falls, hardly a major announcement... and hardly new.

Curran has received a very rough ride in the local media lately for predicting on his blog that Niagara Liberal MPP Kim Craitor will lose his seat in the next provincial election. Uncorrected Proofs broke the story here and the Ontario Tories ran with it. Curran is pretty good at predicting election outcomes in Niagara Falls... Before the 2006 federal election, he correctly predicted Liberal candidate Gary Burroughs would lose to Tory Rob Nicholson. That's right, the President of the Niagara Falls Liberal riding association predicted on his blog that his own candidate would lose on the eve of the election. In Curran's own words:

Hey. I know what it's like to have ass@@@les from outside the riding interfere with your riding. The best candidate in my riding two years running has not had the opportunity to win back this riding. Both times there was a very large amount of interference from ex MPs, current MPs, the PMO, the national and provincial co-chairs. You name them, they had an opinion. Here's the thing....this will be twice in a row that they were wrong. We will not win this riding.(Sad but true)

With this kind of gaffe-prone record, I wouldn't be surprised if the party forced Curran to shut down his blog during the election... If he is nominated to run for the Liberals, I'd be prepared to reverse my earlier prediction and suggest that Rob Nicholson will be handily re-elected in Niagara Falls Riding.

Political Predictions for 2007

Here are my political predictions for 2007:

1. Dalton McGuinty's majority government will be re-elected with a reduced majority.
2. Howard Hampton will resign as leader of the Ontario NDP.
3. Lorne Calvert's Saskatchewan NDP government will be defeated and replaced by Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party government.
4. Gary Doer's Manitoba NDP government will be re-elected with a reduced majority.
5. The Conservatives will be re-elected (once again) in Alberta.
6. Ontario PC leader John Tory will fail to win a seat in the 2007 Ontario provincial election.
7. The Bloc Quebecois' anti strike-breaking bill will become law.
8. Andre Bosiclair's Parti Quebecois will topple Jean Charest's Liberals by winning a majority government in Quebec, despite losing the popular vote.
9. If a federal election is called:
a) Government House Leader Rob Nicholson will be narrowly defeated in his Niagara Falls riding.
b) Michael Fortier will fail to win a seat in the House of Commons.
c) The NDP caucus will shrink by at least 10%.
d) The Bloc Quebecois will maintatin its dominant position in Quebec.