Pundits Debate Decorum in the House

Canadian television at its best or at its worst?

Former NDP Cabinet Minister Predicts Calvert's Defeat

You don't need to be a psychic to predict that the Saskatchewan NDP will likely be defeated once Premier Calvert gets the nerve to call an election. However, I was surprised to hear former NDP Cabinet Minster Janice McKinnon predict it over and over again publicly as part of a CPSA panel which included former NDP Premier Alan Blakeney.

Link-O-Rama Ontario Edition

Who wins and who loses under MMP in Ontario?

Urquhart airs Tory dirty laundry.

NDP search for a new leader has begun.

Stephen Colbert and the Ten Commandments

Georgia Congressman Lynn Westmoreland discusses with Stephen Colbert his poposal to have the Ten commandments posted in the House and Senate.

Don't Count on 4-Way Races in Quebec

Thomas Mulcair wants us to believe that if the NDP can reach 20% of the popular vote in Quebec, it will yield an abundance of seats for the party as a result of a good number of 4-way races. However, he shouldn't count on it. The fact of the matter is that although 4 parties are currently polling in the double digits, on a regional basis, we see a series of 2-way races with the NDP trailing far behind the front runners. In Montreal, the contest is between the Liberals and the BQ, while in the rest of Quebec, the contest is between the Bloc and the Tories. Mulcair's scenario only really applies to the Outremont riding, the very riding he plans to run in when a by-election is called in the near future.

Greens Edge Out NDP for Third Place in PEI

New Democrats have never done particularly well on the Island, but did hold a seat within recent memory. The Greens will be very happy about this.

Liberals 53%
Tories 41%
Greens 3%
NDP 2%

10,000 Visitors

Today, this blog was read by its 10,000th visitor. Interestingly, almost none of my vistors are referred by Google. For some reason the search engine doesn't like Uncorrected Proofs...

Ontario Provincial Election Forecasting

Many of you will be familiar with UBC's election forecaster.

It has recently been updated to include the 2007 Ontario provincial election.

Election junkies could literally spend hours crunching the numbers on this thing.

Enjoy.

New Poll, Same Old Story

Read the details here.

Conservatives 33%
Liberals 31%
NDP 17%
Greens 8%
BQ 8%

+/-3.1 19/20

My favourite line from the article:

Pollster Bruce Anderson said these results suggest that voters aren't solidly partisan.
"While politics in Ottawa sometimes presents the impression of Liberals and Conservatives as each other's mortal enemies, the reality among voters is that they are each other's favourite second choice," said the Decima CEO.

Manitoba NDP Increases Its Majority

Winning three majorities in a row is an amazing feat in Canadian politics. Increasing your majority each time is almost miraculous.

Manitoba NDP seats totals

1999: 32/57
2003: 35/57
2007: 36/57

Media Sensationalizes Picket Line Violence

This is just ridiculous... Funny how the scab is portrayed as the hero.

The Communist Manifesto Illustrated by Cartoons

Indoctrinate your children today!

Manitoba Election Night Links

Riding results in real time

Ridings to Watch on election night

Election Forecasting

Public opinion polls

My election prediction

New Provincial Poll Numbers for Ontario, BC, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta

Check out the latest polls from Environics:

Ontario

PC 38%
Liberal 33%
NDP 26%
Other 2%

BC

Liberal 48%
NDP 31%
Green 18%
Other 2%

Manitoba

NDP 44%
PC 41%
Liberal 15%
Other 0%

Alberta

PC 64%
Liberal 21%
NDP 9%
Alliance 4%
Other 1%

From Positive to Negative: Manitoba NDP Campaign Ads

The tone of the Manitoba NDP's campaign ads sure changed during the course of the provincial election. You can see them all in reverse chronological order here. I think the anti-McFadyen ads which ran in the latter half of the campaign were very effective. They seem to have been coordinated with third party ads paid for by unions - smart strategy which likely explains the plummeting support for the Manitoba Tories.

Tory ads here.

Mulcair Eyes Outremont

The federal NDP's star candidate in Quebec, former Environment Minister Thomas Mulcair, is likely going to throw his hat into the ring when Stephen Harper calls a by-election in the in the near future. Many pundits had expected that a federal election would cancel the need for a by-election in Jean Lapierre's old seat, but with the election delayed, chances are the by-election will proceed. The NDP has an excellent chance of picking up the seat, but only with Mulcair as their candidate.

Results from 2006:

Liberal 14,281
BQ 11,714
NDP 6,965
Con 5,218

If Mulcair can convince just 20% of Liberal voters and 15% of BQ voters to switch to the NDP, he can take the riding.

An NDP victory in Quebec would really shake things up and further complicate matters for the BQ, who are desperately trying to fend off a challenge from the Tories. Mulcair and Layton are currently touring Quebec, building the party's profile and capitalizing on recent gains in Quebec public opinion polls.

Good News for the PQ: New Federalist Party Launched in Quebec

A new federalist party is being launched in Quebec.

Affiliation Quebec is fed up with the way the Quebec government overlooks the anglophone minority in Montreal. This development is reminiscent of the creation of the Equality Party in the late 1980s.

The province's major political parties routinely overlook close to one million voters in Montreal's metropolitan area, said Allen Nutik, founder of the fledgling political party, Affiliation Quebec.

He said Affiliation Quebec will give a voice to the city's anglophones, francophones and minority groups.

“There's nothing dangerous here in our program and there's nothing offensive to main-line Quebeckers,” said Mr. Nutik, a resident of Montreal's upper-class suburb of Westmount.

“We're just a party fighting for the minority interests, which are now overlooked by the main-line parties.”

Doer to Run for Federal NDP Leadership?

Gary Doer and the NDP are widely expected to win the Manitoba provincial election on Tuesday, but the opposition is already charging that Doer won't complete his third term as Premier if the NDP is in fact victorious.

That got me thinking about a potential job reshuffling within the ranks of the NDP leadership. If Jack Layton can't improve on the federal NDP's 2006 numbers in the next federal election, widely expected to be called this year or next, he may face pressure to resign, having run as leader in three campaigns.

Doer would be an appealing choice for many New Democrats.

He's a proven winner (New Democrats do like to win from time to time).

He could potentially rebuild the party's western base (which has been eroded under Layton).

He's a centrist (which would make him more "credible" with mainstream voters).

He has lots of experience (as a three term Manitoba premier).

He is well liked (in fact, one of the most well liked Premiers in Canada).

After three terms as Manitoba Premier, he will likely be looking for new challenges (running to become the first NDP Prime Minister in Canada would certainly be a challenge).

Manitoba Election Prediction

More good news for the NDP.

My prediction:

NDP 31 seats
PC 24 seats
Liberal 2 seats

Feel free to add you own predictions in the comments section.

NDP MPP Votes Against Endangered Species Act

Timmins-James Bay NDP MPP Gilles Bisson joined four Tory MPPs in voting against third reading of the Endangered Species Act on Wednesday. The new law, heralded by environmentalists, expands the number of protected animals and allows scientists to determine which species should be added to the list each year. Ontario NDP leader Howard Hampton and Nickel Belt NDP MPP Shelly Martel skipped the vote. These northern members had reservations about the bill, but by voting against the bill (or abstaining in the latter case) they have allowed the Ontario Liberals to emerge as the greenest party in the legislature in the run up to this fall's provincial election.

See the final vote tally by clicking here and scrolling to the bottom of the page.

Read more about this issue here.